As of October 2026. This document has not been notified to the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) or any other competent authority and has not been approved by any authority; it does not constitute a crypto-asset white paper within the meaning of Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 (MiCA) until such notification has taken place. Nothing in this document is an offer, a solicitation, or investment advice. This document deliberately contains no valuation scenarios and no token-price projections.
Mandatory statements
In accordance with Article 6 and Annex I of Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 (MiCA):
This crypto-asset white paper has not been approved by any competent authority in any Member State of the European Union. The offeror of the crypto-asset is solely responsible for the content of this crypto-asset white paper.
The crypto-asset referred to in this white paper may lose its value in part or in full, may not always be transferable and may not be liquid.
The KASHBO token is not covered by the investor compensation schemes under Directive 97/9/EC or by the deposit guarantee schemes under Directive 2014/49/EU.
Retail holders in the European Union benefit from a right of withdrawal of 14 calendar days from their agreement to purchase KASHBO tokens during the offer to the public, without incurring any fees or costs and without giving reasons, in accordance with Article 13 MiCA. Purchase funds are treated as non-final until this period has lapsed.
1 · Abstract
Kashbo is software for automated trading on regulated US prediction markets — a sector that recorded more than $44 billion in trading volume in 2025 and continues to accelerate: Kalshi, the venue Kashbo trades on, reached an annualized run-rate above $178 billion by May 2026 and handles more than 90% of all US prediction-market volume.
At the heart of the platform is the Kashbo Engine — an AI-assisted trading bot that compares an AI estimate with the market price and trades on Kalshi automatically. Users connect their own Kalshi exchange account with an API key, set their categories, budgets and risk parameters, and hand analysis and execution over to the engine — around the clock, fully traceable in the bot log.
Status: the bot app is live and in a beta phase at app.kashbo.com. Registration is currently by invitation.
The platform is monetised through a SaaS subscription model and complemented by the KASHBO utility token — an SPL token on Solana with a fixed total supply of 100,000,000. Token utility today is access- and discount-based (Section 11); a revenue-linked holder benefit is planned and subject to legal structuring under EU crypto regulation (Section 13). KASHBO confers no dividend, no interest and no repayment claim, and this document makes no statement about a future value or price of the token.
2 · Introduction & problem statement
2.1 The rise of prediction markets
Prediction markets have evolved within a few years from a niche product into one of the fastest-growing market segments worldwide. Industry volume exceeded $44 billion in 2025 — a roughly 130-fold increase versus early 2024 — and accelerated sharply through 2026: combined monthly volume on the two leading venues rose from under $5B in late 2025 to well above $24B, supercharged by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The centre of gravity has shifted to the regulated US market: Kalshi alone traded $21.1 billion in June 2026, is valued in the tens of billions (last priced at ~$22B, reportedly targeting ~$40B) and handles more than 90% of US prediction-market volume — a clear signal that institutions now treat prediction markets as a formal asset class.
2.2 The problem
- Information overload — hundreds of active markets at any time. Following them by hand is not feasible.
- Time requirement — trading these markets requires continuous monitoring and fast reaction to news, around the clock, seven days a week.
- Missing tools — almost no specialised tooling for event contracts exists for retail users.
- Emotional decisions — cognitive biases (confirmation bias, overconfidence, loss aversion) affect discretionary trading decisions.
2.3 Market opportunity
| Venue | Volume | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (US, CFTC-regulated) | >$178B annualized run-rate (May 2026); $21.1B in June 2026 alone | Live — Kashbo's home venue |
| Polymarket (offshore, crypto-based) | $21.5B in 2025 | Roadmap (multi-platform) |
| Manifold, others | — | Roadmap |
3 · What is Kalshi?
Kashbo trades on Kalshi, so it helps to understand the venue:
- Regulated in the US. Kalshi is an exchange for event contracts regulated in the United States by the CFTC — a Designated Contract Market. That is the key difference from offshore prediction markets.
- Real dollars, no crypto. Users fund a regulated account in plain US dollars. No crypto wallet, no stablecoins, no on-chain transfers are needed for trading — unlike Polymarket and most competitors.
- Simple contracts. Yes/No contracts on real-world events — "Will the Fed cut rates in July?", "Will inflation come in above 3%?". Each contract pays $1 if right, $0 if wrong, and trades between 1¢ and 99¢ — the price literally is the market's probability.
- The clear market leader. Kalshi handles over 90% of all US prediction-market volume with a central limit order book and deep liquidity — the basis for automated trading. The company was valued at $22 billion in its Series F round (Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm).
Important: Kashbo is an independent software provider. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by Kalshi. Kashbo is not an exchange, broker or investment adviser and never takes custody of users' exchange funds.
4 · The solution: the Kashbo protocol
4.1 Vision
Kashbo makes systematic, data-driven trading on regulated prediction markets accessible to everyone — regardless of technical knowledge, time resources or data-analysis skills.
4.2 The Kashbo Engine
The engine continuously scans active Kalshi markets, obtains an AI estimate of the probability for each market, compares it against the market price, and automatically places positions when the difference exceeds its cost threshold — without sleep breaks, fully traceable in the bot log. The engine automates the user's own Kalshi account; it does not pool funds and it cannot guarantee profits (Section 18).
4.3 Live today (beta)
- User onboarding with email verification and optional 2FA
- Kashbo Engine with automated trading on Kalshi
- Live dashboard with positions, P&L and bot log
- Exit rules: catastrophe stop, take-profit, stop-loss and trailing stop
- AI estimates with probability, confidence and reasoning
5 · Platform & product architecture
5.1 User onboarding
- Registration — sign up at app.kashbo.com with email verification. During the beta, registration is by invitation.
- Kalshi account connection — connect your own Kalshi account with an API key. The key is encrypted before it is stored, is never logged and is only decrypted in memory at the moment an order is signed.
- Configuration — set risk profile (Conservative / Moderate / Aggressive), daily and weekly budget, per-trade limit, market categories and exit rules.
- Activation — the engine trades within your limits from its next cycle.
5.2 Dashboard modules
| Module | Description |
|---|---|
| Portfolio overview | Open and closed positions and the result (P&L) |
| Bot activity log | Every decision with AI estimate, market price, gap, confidence and stake |
| AI estimates | Current market estimates with probability, confidence and reasoning |
6 · Kashbo Engine — how the bot works
The engine runs every 15 minutes, around the clock. Each cycle it reviews the open positions, scans the active Kalshi markets in the user's categories and trades the markets that pass its entry rule — strictly within the limits configured in the bot settings.
6.1 The bot cycle
- Check open positions — reviews the open positions against the exit rules (Section 8).
- Load active markets — fetches the active Kalshi markets in the user's categories.
- AI estimate — obtains an AI estimate for each market (Section 9).
- Comparison — compares the estimate with the market price (Section 7).
- Budget & duplicate checks — checks the user's budgets and limits and whether a position in that market already exists.
- Order — sends the order to Kalshi.
6.2 Stake and order execution
The stake follows the same numbers as the entry rule: a larger gap and higher confidence mean a larger stake, between $2 and $25. It is always capped by the user's per-trade limit, the remaining budget and the free cash in the account.
The engine sends a limit order that fills immediately or is cancelled. Partial fills are possible; the unfilled rest is cancelled.
6.3 Budgets and limits
Users limit their risk with a daily and a weekly budget, a per-trade limit, the risk profile, the choice of market categories and the exit rules. All of them can be changed at any time. The engine never trades without a limit: if no daily budget is entered, a default daily limit applies.
7 · The entry rule
The engine has one entry rule. It buys the side its AI estimate favours when
- the estimate differs from the market price by at least 8¢ (15¢ if the side to buy costs 65¢ or more),
- the AI's confidence is at least 65%,
- the side to buy costs no more than 80¢.
Markets below 5¢ or above 95¢ are skipped, and so are gaps larger than 35¢, because there the AI has usually misread the market. Without an AI estimate there is no trade. There are no other strategies or modes.
Gap means the difference between the AI estimate and the market price, in cents. Example (mechanics illustration, not a performance claim): a market trades at 40¢ for "Yes" and the AI estimates 52%. The gap is 12¢. If the confidence is high enough, the engine buys "Yes".
Risk profiles set how strict the entry rule is and how large a position becomes. A profile can only make the engine stricter, never looser.
| Profile | Min. AI confidence | Gap | Highest price bought | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 75% | 5¢ more | 70¢ | × 0.7 |
| Moderate | 65% | standard | 80¢ | × 1 |
| Aggressive | 60% | standard | 80¢ | × 1.3 |
A signal is no assurance of a winning trade.
8 · Exit rules — when does the bot sell?
At the start of every cycle the engine reviews all open positions it has opened. Four rules apply while the bot is switched on:
- Catastrophe stop — applies in every cycle, default −60%.
- Take-profit and stop-loss — the user's thresholds, active while "Hold to resolution" is off.
- Trailing stop — optional. It follows the highest price reached and sells when the price falls by the set percentage from that high. That sale can be below the entry price.
- Resolution — when the market is decided, Kalshi pays out automatically and the position is closed.
Before every sale the trigger is re-checked against the live order book. The exit rules do not use AI estimates.
Hold to resolution. If the user turns this switch on, the engine keeps its positions until the market is decided. Take-profit, stop-loss and trailing stop are paused; only the catastrophe stop stays active. Holding saves the spread and fees of an early sale. It does not improve the odds of a position.
While the bot is switched off, no exit rules run — including the catastrophe stop. The rules apply only to positions the bot has opened.
9 · AI estimates
For each market the AI estimates a probability and a confidence level and gives a short reasoning, based on current news. An estimate is reused for a few hours before it is refreshed.
| Output | Description |
|---|---|
| Estimated probability | The model's YES probability (0–100%), compared against the market price |
| Confidence | How certain the model is (0–100%); the entry rule requires a minimum |
| Reasoning | Short explanation of the estimate, visible in the bot log |
The estimate is the input of the entry rule; it is an estimate, not ground truth, and no estimate is guaranteed.
10 · Technical infrastructure
10.1 Tech stack
| Layer | Technology |
|---|---|
| Backend | FastAPI (Python), SQLAlchemy (async) |
| Database | PostgreSQL, Redis (cache) |
| Scheduler | Cyclical engine scheduler (15-minute cycle) |
| Exchange client | Kalshi REST/WebSocket API integration |
| AI layer | LLM-based estimate service with news retrieval |
| Frontend | Next.js, React, TypeScript, Tailwind CSS |
| Infrastructure | Docker, reverse proxy with TLS, EU cloud hosting |
| Blockchain | Solana (SPL token) |
10.2 System architecture
Internet
│
▼
Reverse proxy (443, TLS)
├── app.kashbo.com → Trading platform (Next.js / FastAPI)
├── token.kashbo.com → Token portal (this site)
│
├── PostgreSQL (users, trades, markets, orders)
├── Redis (cache, rate limiting)
└── Kalshi API (market data & order execution)
10.3 Data security
- Kalshi API keys are encrypted before they are stored — decrypted only in memory at signing time; never in plaintext, never in logs.
- Encrypted off-site backups run daily.
- Optional two-factor authentication on all accounts; payment webhooks are verified and fail closed.
11 · Tokenomics & the KASHBO token
11.1 Token overview
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Token name | KASHBO |
| Standard | SPL token · Solana |
| Total supply | 100,000,000 · fixed |
| Inflation | None |
| Base price | $0.10695 |
| Early Adopter price | $0.09091 (−15%) |
| Token portal | token.kashbo.com |
11.2 Token allocation
| Allocation | Share | Tokens |
|---|---|---|
| Public sale | 77% | 77,000,000 |
| Staking reserve (48-month programme) | 12% | 12,000,000 |
| Team (locked for 6 months, then released linearly over 24 months) | 10% | 10,000,000 |
| Liquidity reserve | 1% | 1,000,000 (deployment subject to legal review — own liquidity provisioning can trigger additional MiCA obligations) |
11.3 Token utility
- Platform access — after the Token Generation Event (TGE): the option to stake KASHBO as an alternative to a paid subscription. TGE means the point from which the tokens sold are officially issued and delivered to the buyers' wallets; no date has been set.
- Discounts — subscription benefits and tiered discounts.
- Early-adopter benefits — time-limited benefits for early platform users, as published in the token portal.
- Planned: revenue-linked utility — a holder benefit linked to platform subscription revenue is planned and subject to legal structuring (Section 13). It is deliberately not part of the token's rights under this document.
- Deflationary mechanics (under legal review) — a burn share on token payments and periodic buybacks are part of the economic design; they are under legal review and are not guaranteed.
KASHBO does NOT confer: any share in capital, profits or liquidation proceeds of Kashbo LLC; any dividend, interest or repayment claim; any right to a future value; any voting rights in the company.
12 · Token sale
12.1 Sale overview
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Token portal | token.kashbo.com |
| Current stage | Stage 1 – Early Adopter |
| Hard cap | $8,000,000 |
| Public sale tokens | 77,000,000 KASHBO |
| Base price | $0.10695 |
| Early Adopter price | $0.09091 (−15%) |
| Order size | $50 minimum · $250,000 maximum per order |
| Payment | As shown at checkout: connected wallet, USDC on Solana, SEPA bank transfer in euros. No card payments. Orders are denominated in USD. |
| Identity verification | Provided for where required; if verification is required, the team contacts the purchaser |
| Excluded jurisdictions | United States, China and sanctioned states |
| Use of proceeds | The details follow in the first quarter of 2027 |
12.2 Offer structure
KASHBO is currently offered in the token portal in Stage 1 – Early Adopter, at the Early Adopter price. No end date for the stage has been published; availability is limited. Purchases are recorded as reservations until the tokens are delivered.
Who cannot take part. Persons who are resident or located in the United States, or who act for such a person, cannot take part. China and sanctioned states are excluded as well. The portal blocks access from excluded countries, and purchasers confirm their eligibility with every order. The minimum age is 18.
Lock-up for purchasers. KASHBO purchased in the sale are subject to a lock-up until the first listing of KASHBO on a crypto exchange. There is no commitment that such a listing will take place.
12.3 Payment, delivery and withdrawal
- Right of withdrawal: retail purchasers in the EU may withdraw within 14 calendar days without giving reasons and at no cost (Art. 13 MiCA); refunds follow within 14 days.
- Delivery takes place at or after the TGE, as announced in the token portal, as an on-chain transfer of SPL tokens to the purchaser's own Solana wallet address (Section 15). If a purchase cannot be completed, payments received for it are refunded.
- Token swap: KASHBO from the token swap offered in the Levolution portal are delivered to the purchaser's Solana wallet in that portal; the terms of the swap are shown there.
Note: unlike typical token-sale documents, this white paper deliberately contains no discounted-cash-flow valuation and no implied-token-price scenarios. Under MiCA, statements about a future value of the token can requalify the offering — and no such statement is made here.
13 · Planned: revenue-linked utility
A revenue-linked benefit for token holders is planned and is being structured legally (EU crypto regulation, MiCA). It would be based exclusively on subscription revenue, not on trading results; Kashbo does not operate a pooled trading account. It is not part of the rights the token gives today. There is no claim and no guaranteed return, and no figures or forecasts are published. The feature may start in a changed form or not at all.
| What this is | What this is not |
|---|---|
| A planned feature | A dividend or interest |
| Under MiCA structuring | A promise of profit or value |
| No entitlement today | Investment advice |
| No projections provided | Guaranteed to launch |
Until launched and legally cleared, no purchaser has any claim arising from this section, and no revenue, yield or distribution figures are stated or implied anywhere in this document.
14 · Subscription models & platform access
The price list of the bot app has three plans: Starter ($99 per month), Pro ($999 per year) and Lifetime ($4,999 one-time). During the beta, access is granted mainly through vouchers, for example with a token purchase or a token swap. The prices shown in the bot app are the ones that apply.
Subscription pricing is platform pricing (app.kashbo.com) and may evolve independently of the token sale.
15 · Security & custody
- Non-custodial token delivery: purchasers provide their own external Solana wallet; the offeror does not safekeep crypto-assets or private keys for purchasers. For KASHBO from the token swap see Section 12.3.
- API key protection: Kalshi API keys are stored encrypted; decryption only in memory at signing time.
- Accounts: hashed passwords, optional two-factor authentication.
- Backups: encrypted off-site backups run daily.
16 · Roadmap
Phase 1 — Foundation & beta (active) Bot app live at app.kashbo.com (beta) · token sale Stage 1 – Early Adopter (reservations) · community building · legal & compliance workstream (MiCA / EU white paper)
Phase 2 — Sale & growth Token sale continues · Kashbo Engine v1.1 (extended signals) · full subscription system · Token Generation Event (TGE) · utility launch: subscription payments with KASHBO
Phase 3 — Scaling Kashbo Engine v2.0 · revenue-linked utility (subject to legal review) · advanced risk & analytics tooling · mobile app (beta) · Polymarket integration
Phase 4 — Ecosystem Multi-platform support (Polymarket, Manifold) · strategy marketplace · API for third-party integration · institutional partnerships
Forward-looking items are intentions, not commitments; timing and scope may change. This roadmap deliberately contains no statements about exchange listings or token value.
17 · Company
| Offeror | Kashbo LLC — Limited Liability Company (Wyoming, USA) |
| Registered address | 1309 Coffeen Avenue STE 19221, Sheridan, Wyoming 82801, USA |
| Contact | contact@kashbo.com |
Team roles: founder/CEO (vision, strategy, business development) · engineering (platform architecture, FastAPI, Solana) · AI/ML (probabilistic modelling, NLP) · product (UX/UI, Next.js) · compliance (regulatory, KYC/AML).
18 · Risk factors
Purchasing KASHBO involves significant risks — up to and including the total loss of the amount paid. Read this section in full before purchasing.
18.1 Token risks
- Total loss. KASHBO may become worthless. There is no repayment claim.
- No liquidity. There is no trading venue for KASHBO. It may be impossible to sell or transfer KASHBO at any price. Purchased KASHBO are in addition subject to a lock-up until a first exchange listing (Section 12.2).
- No income. KASHBO generates no interest, dividend or other return.
- Utility dependence. The token's usefulness depends entirely on the continued existence, quality and pricing of the Kashbo platform.
18.2 Project risks
- Early-stage venture. Development, operation or funding of the platform may fail, be delayed or be discontinued.
- Venue dependence. The platform currently depends on the Kalshi API and terms; changes there can materially impair or end core functionality. The multi-platform roadmap reduces this dependency only over time.
- Trading-performance risk. The engine can generate losses; past performance is not indicative of future results. Kashbo does not and cannot guarantee trading profits for platform users.
- Key-person risk. The project currently depends on a small team.
18.3 Technology risks
- Blockchain risk. Solana outages, congestion, consensus failures or protocol changes can delay or prevent token transfers.
- Smart-contract/software defects. Errors in token or platform code may lead to loss of tokens or malfunction of utility features.
- Cybersecurity. Attacks on the portal, the treasury keys or purchasers' own wallets can lead to irreversible loss. Purchasers are solely responsible for securing their own wallet and keys.
- Irreversibility. On-chain transactions cannot be reversed.
18.4 Legal, regulatory and tax risks
- Regulatory change. Future legislation, guidance or enforcement (EU, US or elsewhere) may restrict the platform, the token's utility, or holding and transferring KASHBO.
- Classification risk. A competent authority or court could classify KASHBO differently than intended — in particular, any revenue-linked component could lead to classification as a financial instrument or security in certain jurisdictions. Legal review is mandatory and ongoing.
- Cross-border restrictions. Purchasers are responsible for compliance with their local law; US persons are excluded from the offer.
- Tax. Acquisition, holding, use and disposal of KASHBO may trigger tax consequences; purchasers should obtain independent advice.
18.5 Offeror and mechanism risks
- Insolvency risk. In an insolvency of Kashbo LLC, KASHBO holders have no preferential claim; the token is not a deposit and is not covered by any guarantee scheme.
- Staking-reserve risk. If staked amounts exceed reserve assumptions, reward parameters must adjust; a guardrail system enables rate changes.
- Conflicts of interest. Team and early purchasers hold KASHBO at preferential conditions (Sections 11.2 and 12.1).
19 · Sustainability disclosures
Information on principal adverse impacts on the climate of the consensus mechanism, pursuant to Art. 6(1)(j) MiCA and Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/422:
KASHBO is issued on Solana, which uses Proof of Stake (with Proof of History) — a consensus mechanism that does not rely on energy-intensive mining. Energy consumption per transaction is a small fraction of that of Proof-of-Work networks. The offeror does not operate validators and does not materially influence the network's energy profile.
20 · Applicable law, complaints & disclaimer
- Offer terms and the purchase contract are governed by the laws of the State of Wyoming, USA; mandatory consumer-protection rights of EU purchasers remain unaffected.
- Complaints can be addressed free of charge to contact@kashbo.com.
Legal disclaimer. This white paper is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell tokens or any financial instruments. The KASHBO token is a utility token and confers no ownership rights, no dividends, no interest and no claims on company assets. Forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions; actual results may differ materially. Participation in the token sale and use of the platform is at the user's own risk.
As of October 2026 · © 2026 Kashbo LLC. This document does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. No person is authorised to make statements about KASHBO beyond this document.